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Suggestions that the high-flying Nintendo Wii’s days at the top of the console sales charts may be numbered are beginning to look less ridiculous almost every day, as more people in the know come round to that point of view.

The latest naysayer to pitch in is heavyweight business newspaper The Nikkei in an analysis piece headlined ‘Software Houses Miscalculate Audience, Demand For Wii.’ In the subscription-only article, author Tomoyuki Kawai reflects on a range of concerned voices within the videogames industry.

One of the prime worries seems to be that, while it’s true the Wii has driven up software sales for the industry as a whole, Nintendo has been the only real beneficiary because it has been best placed to analyze demand from early adopters and deliver the hits.

Other software houses have been less agile and many have ended up with flop titles on their hands. The result for them has been no overall increase in sales compared to the previous year and a reluctance to commit to the Wii platform.

The report goes on to discuss the likelihood that many Wiis are gathering dust in owners’ closets, citing one software house president as saying, “People bought it out of curiosity, and it’s likely a lot of them haven’t used it.”

Given that September saw Wii sales fall sharply in Japan for the second consecutive month, it seems reasonable to speculate that the bubble inflated by the novelty factor is starting to deflate, but writing Nintendo off at any stage is a perilous course to steer.

(Crossposted to Tech.co.uk)

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