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Although it seems like something technologically advanced Japan should have had for years, it won’t be until October 24 this year that mobile number portability (MNP) will be finally introduced to the benefit of mobile phone users here.
The upshot will be that cellphone customers (i.e. pretty much everyone on these islands) can switch networks without having to also change their (often-cherished) mobile number. Until now, observers feel that the Japanese government has been very late enforcing MNP, resulting in unnecessarily high charges and a lack of competition among carriers.
As is usually the case here, nothing is as straightforward as it might be. Although phone numbers can be retained, customers will still have to buy a new handset because of the incompatibility of the networks operated by the three main carriers. Also, mobile email addresses have to change too, and we know how important those are to the technorati of Tokyo.
While NTT DoCoMo and KDDI will try to retain customers by promoting their advanced handsets and entertainment services, such as Lismo, Softbank will surely be the most aggressive player seeking to take advantage of MNP.
Most importantly, Softbank has already announced major investments to improve its lousy network performance. Until coverage is better, we advise Softbank to start charging its customers per second (it is now per minute) and to reimburse them if, as is common, a call drops. This will certainly improve customer loyalty.
Naturally, any price war will directly impact the bottom line of the carriers. With a saturating mobile market — growth in July was just 383,000 on a total of 93.3 million subs — and declining ARPU, the consequences of getting the strategy wrong are potentially calamitous. Will Masayoshi Son, CEO of Softbank, be able to repeat his smash-and-grab that netted his Yahoo broadband service the lion’s share of the ADSL market?
Come October, market leader, DoCoMo should be most wary. If we make the reasonable assumption that 5 percent of all subscribers will want to change carriers, 2.5 million DoCoMo subs will then migrate to KDDI and Softbank, while runner-up KDDI will see only 1 million subs move to DoCoMo and Softbank. Softbank, therefore, has the most to win from MNP.
— Arjen van Blokland
03:42 PM 
Mark Hiratsuka •
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